Positive Outlook in 2012

Portland and the U.S. Show Growth in Lodging Industry

PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) has released their preliminary Hotel Horizons® updated forecast for the U.S. lodging industry. Based on performance data through September of 2011 (provided by Smith Travel Research), and Moody’s Analytics’ October 2011 domestic economic forecast, PKF-HR believes that RevPAR in the U.S. will increase by 8.1 percent in 2011, and rise another 6.2 percent in 2012.

“The ongoing recovery of U.S. hotels in 2011 has continued to slightly outpace our forecasts. The 8.1 percent revised RevPAR forecast for the current year represents a 90 basis point increase over our previous forecast released earlier this year,” said R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR.

Because of the accelerated performance in 2011, the PKF-HR forecast change in RevPAR for 2012 has been lowered 110 basis points from 90 days ago to still-attractive 6.2 percent. “We remain very positive about the prospects for 2012. By the end of next year, the industry RevPAR level will be where we always thought it would be. It’s just getting there more quickly, thus the reduced year-over-year percentage change.”

PKF-HR’s optimistic outlook for lodging performance in 2012 is rooted in the economic forecasts of Moody’s Analytics. “Real personal income is projected to rise, and the most important elements of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (consumer spending and business investment) are anticipated to continue to grow,” noted John B. (Jack) Corgel Ph.D., the Robert C. Baker Professor of Real Estate at the Cornell Hotel School and Senior Advisor to PKF-HR. “Most encouraging is the recent positive news regarding employment. Each report on unemployment claims and other measures provides signals of gradual improvement. A brightening of the employment scene supports the floor on our forecasts of hotel performance.”

“As for hotels in the Portland MSA, we are forecasting an occupancy of 65 percent with an average daily room rate of $95.05 for 2011”, said Chris Kraus, senior vice president in the Bozeman, Montana office of PKF Consulting. “This results in strong RevPAR growth of 10.7 percent for 2011, with another 5.4 percent growth forecast for 2012. By 2012, average daily rates will surpass their pre-recession highs, and the overall occupancy level will return to its long run average in the high 60 percent range.”

The December editions of Hotel Horizons® are scheduled to be distributed early in the month. They will contain lodging forecasts for the six national chain-scales, six national location types, and 50 major markets. | CHRIS KRAUS, SENIOR VP, PKF HOSPITALITY RESEARCH

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CHRIS KRAUS • Chris.Kraus@PFKC.com

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