ORLA Update – November 16, 2022

Election Recap: Many Close Races, Some Still Too Close to Call
[Numbers updated 11/6/22 from original post on 11/14/22]
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Voter turnout in Oregon for midterm general elections is typically around 70%. The results below were pulled from the Secretary of State’s site as of 3:45 p.m. Tuesday, November 15, 2022, and reflect a 62% turnout.
 
This is the first Oregon Election where ballots did not have to be received by 8:00 pm on election day, but did need to be postmarked by election day. So, there is no historical perspective if this might benefit one party over the other. 
 
On the Federal side, Oregon gained an additional Congressional seat. Although that race, the 6th Congressional, is still too close to call, it looks like the Republicans in Oregon will gain at least one seat in Congress, the redrawn 5th Congressional District. 
 
In the Governor’s race, Christine Drazan has conceded the race to Tina Kotek. Betsy Johnson conceded on Election Day after the initial returns.
 
It appears most of the Senate races are known at this time. The Democrats held a 18-12 super majority which at this point seems to be reduced to at least 17-13, with the only race still up for grabs being the Oregon City-Gladstone seat held by Republican Bill Kennemer. Kennemer and challenger Mark Meek (D) are locked in a tight race with Meek leading by 0.68% or just 397 votes. This seat is in Clackamas County so there should be a fair number of votes still to count. 
 
The House has more races where it is too soon to call. The Democrats currently hold a 37-23 super majority. Democrats appear to have enough seats to retain control with 32 races that seem to be settled. The Republicans should win 23 seats for sure. That leaves five seats up for grabs and too close to call still.  Democrats would have to win four of the five to hold the super majority in the House. 

Governor: 

• Kotek (D) – 47.10% – Difference between Kotek & Drazan = 67,365 votes
• Drazan (R) – 43.44% – Drazan has conceded
• Johnson (I) – 8.62%

 
BOLI: 

• Stephenson – 60.86% – Difference = 319,556 votes        
• Helt – 38.49%

 
CD4: 

• Hoyle (D) – 50.91% – Difference = 25,866 votes
• Skarlatos (R) – 42.9% – Skarlatos has conceded

 
CD5:

• Chavez-Deremer (R) – 50.91% – Difference = 6924 votes
• McLeod-Skinner (D) – 48.82% – McLeod-Skinner has conceded

 
CD6:

• Salinas (D) – 49.79% – Difference = 5404 votes
• Erickson (R) – 47.76%

 
M111 (Health Care as Right):

• No – 50.65% – Difference = 23,185 votes
• Yes – 49.35% 

 
M112 (Slavery Language in Constitution):

• Yes – 55.66% – Difference = 201,231 votes
• No – 44.34%

 
M113 (Legislative Absences):

• Yes – 68.31% - Difference = 653,534 votes
• No – 31.69%

 
M114 (Gun Sales):

• Yes – 50.90% - Difference = 32,630 votes
• No – 49.10%

 
State Senate: 
Current balance is 18 D, 11 R, 1 I.  If those currently leading below hold, balance would be at 17 D, 12 R, 1 I. It appears to be down to one competitive race – SD20. 
 
SD3:

• Golden (D, Inc.) – 51.79% - Difference = 2341 votes
• Sparacino (R) – 48.09%         

 
SD10: 

• Patterson (D, Inc.) – 53.42% - Difference = 3938 votes
• Moore-Greene (R) – 46.44%                        

 
SD11 (open seat):

• Thatcher (R) – 52.68% - Difference = 2318 votes
• Walsh (D) – 47.08%

 
SD13 (open seat):

• Woods (D) – 57.59% - Difference = 8646 votes
• Velez (R) – 42.32%

 
SD16 (open seat): 

• Weber (R) – 56.60% - Difference = 9362 votes
• Busch (D) – 43.26%

 
SD20:

• Meek (D) – 50.28% - Difference = 397 votes
• Kennemer (R, Inc.) – 49.60%

 
SD26 (open seat): 

• Bonham (R) – 59.04% - Difference = 11,914 votes
• Mason (D) – 40.83%

 
State House: 
Current balance is 37 D, 23 R.  If those currently leading below hold, balance would be at 35 D, 25 R. There are several very tight races left.
 
Pretty Wide Margins...
 
HD12 (open seat): 

• Conrad (R) – 57.53% - Difference = 5212 votes
• Emmons (D) – 42.36%

 
HD19 (open seat):

• Anderson (D) – 54.21% - Difference = 2344 votes
• Sullivan (R) – 45.65%

 
HD21 (open seat):

• Mannix (R) – 51.67% - Difference = 1552 votes
• Navarro (D) – 45.44%

 
HD22 (open seat):

• Cramer (R) – 51.80% - Difference = 630 votes
• Medina (D) – 48.00%

 
HD24 (open seat):

• Elmer (R) – 55.64% - Difference = 2929 votes
• Ernst (D) – 44.23%

 
HD31 (open seat): 

• B. Stout (R) – 59.44% - Difference = 6758 votes
• Sorace (D) – 40.33%

 
A Little Closer...
 
HD7:

• Lively (D, Inc.) – 51.68% - Difference = 1112 votes
• A. Stout (R) – 47.72%

 
HD32 (open seat): 

• Javadi (R) – 51.26% - Difference = 912 votes
• Laity (D) – 48.59%

 
HD40 (open seat):

• Hartman (D) – 50.21% - Difference = 161 votes
• Baker (R) – 49.69%

 
HD48 (open seat):

• H. Nguyen (D) – 51.39% - Difference = 681 votes
• Masterman (R) – 48.47%

 
HD49:

• Hudson (D, Inc.) – 52.08% - Difference = 905 votes
• Lauer (R) – 47.70%

 
HD50:

• Ruiz (D, Inc.) – 51.70% - Difference = 836 votes
• Salvador (R) – 48.10%

 
HD52 (open seat):

• Helfrich (R) – 52.50% - Difference = 1611 votes
• Long (D) – 47.37%

 
HD53 (open seat):

• Levy (D) – 50.33% - Difference = 278 votes
• Sipe (R) – 49.56%

 
Other State House Races of Note
These races include restaurant operators running for public office (McEntee, Nguyen, Bynum).
 
HD10:

• Gomberg (D, Inc.) – 56.77% - Difference = 5026 votes
• McEntee (R) – 43.10%

 
HD38: (open seat)

• D. Nguyen (D) – 68.07% - Difference = 13,363 votes
• Firmin (R) – 31.86%

 
HD39:

• Bynum (D, Inc.) – 54.86% - Difference = 2632 votes
• Haynes (R) – 44.98%

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